The role timing plays in cyberwar

http://www.nature.com/news/the-best-time-to-wage-cyberwar-1.14502

An important question when it comes to cyberwar is the question of timing. Should the hacker launch a cyberattack right at the moment he succeeds to enter the target’s computer or should he wait for an even better opportunity to attack? The problem in waiting too long is that the target could become aware of the intruder and fix the vulnerabilities in his computer system.

A new mathematical model that allows users to calculate the ideal timing of a surprise cyberattack has already been invented. An example for this is the Stuxnet worm, which infected an Iranian nuclear enrichment plant and went unnoticed for almost one and a half years. For Stuxnet a immediate attack was not the more rational approach.

If we compare cyberwar to convential warfare then a nation should wait patiently for the right occasion to use cyberweaponry. Terrorists, however, might think quite differently as this and just want to cause as much damage as possible at a random point of time. If the attackers are quite sure that the vulnerabilities in a security system are unlikely to be discovered and patched any time soon, then it would be quite reasonable for them to save their cyberweapons for a high-stake situation. At other times a zero-day cyberattack, in which the target has zero days to prepare for the attack, might be preferable. Stuxnet, for example which relied in four computer vulnerabilities being open at the same time, had to be dispatched as soon as possible.

The important question is whether the use of offensive cyber technology is productive or not.